Live tracking of oil markets, Hormuz shipping, and global energy impact.
The Iran crisis has triggered the most significant disruption to global oil markets since the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Brent crude closed at $74 per barrel on Friday, February 28, 2026, before the strikes were announced. With markets closed for the weekend, traders and analysts are bracing for a dramatic repricing when trading resumes on Monday, with projections ranging from $80 to well over $100 per barrel depending on how the situation develops.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil supply transits daily, is the critical chokepoint. Major shipping companies have suspended tanker operations through the strait, and Lloyd's of London has designated the entire Persian Gulf a war risk zone. Iran's own oil exports of roughly 1.5 million barrels per day are also effectively offline due to military operations and sanctions enforcement.
OPEC has called an emergency meeting to coordinate a supply response. The US has signaled readiness to release Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks, and the International Energy Agency is preparing a coordinated multi-country emergency release. However, no amount of strategic reserve releases can fully offset a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which would remove roughly 20 million barrels per day from global supply.
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Brent crude closed at $74 before the strikes on February 28, 2026. Analysts project prices could open between $80-100+ when markets reopen on Monday, depending on the severity of Strait of Hormuz disruptions. If the strait is fully closed, some analysts project Brent could spike to $120-150 per barrel in the short term, rivaling the 2008 peak.
The Strait of Hormuz is not officially closed by any government. However, major oil companies and shipping operators have voluntarily suspended tanker transits through the waterway due to the military situation. Lloyd's of London has designated the Persian Gulf a war risk zone, dramatically increasing insurance premiums for vessels transiting the strait.
OPEC has called for an emergency ministerial meeting to discuss the crisis and coordinate a supply response. Saudi Arabia, as the only producer with significant spare capacity, is expected to play a central role. The meeting will address potential releases from strategic petroleum reserves and adjustments to production quotas.
Approximately 20-21 million barrels of oil per day transit through the Strait of Hormuz, representing roughly 20% of global oil consumption. This includes crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, and Iran. A prolonged closure would create the most severe supply disruption in oil market history.
Yes, gasoline prices are expected to rise significantly when the oil market reprices on Monday. The extent depends on how long shipping disruptions persist. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and coordinated IEA releases could moderate the impact, but sustained disruptions to Hormuz shipping would push pump prices substantially higher within days.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently holds approximately 370 million barrels. President Trump has authorized the Department of Energy to prepare emergency releases. The International Energy Agency is coordinating a potential multi-country strategic reserve release among its 31 member nations to stabilize global oil markets.