Stock market, oil prices, currencies, and economic analysis
Not Financial Advice
This page provides information and analysis for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance during geopolitical events does not guarantee future results.
The Iran strikes landed after US market close on Friday, meaning the full impact will be felt when markets reopen on Monday. Brent crude oil closed at approximately $74 per barrel on Friday — analysts expect it to gap open between $85 and $105+ depending on the status of Strait of Hormuz shipping and Iran's ability to disrupt Gulf oil flows. The strait handles roughly 20% of global oil supply. Even a partial disruption would send shockwaves through energy markets, with downstream effects on inflation, consumer prices, and central bank policy.
Defence and aerospace stocks are expected to surge significantly on Monday. Lockheed Martin, Raytheon (RTX), Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics all stand to benefit from increased military spending and munitions replacement orders. Conversely, airlines, travel companies, and Gulf-exposed real estate and construction firms face sharp sell-offs. Dubai-listed stocks are likely to see severe declines when the Dubai Financial Market reopens. European luxury brands and companies with significant Gulf revenue exposure will also face pressure.
Safe-haven assets are expected to rally strongly. Gold, already near all-time highs, could surge past $2,200 per ounce. The US dollar typically strengthens during geopolitical crises as global capital seeks safety, though rising oil prices create counter-pressure through inflation expectations. US Treasury bonds will see strong demand, pushing yields lower. Cryptocurrency markets, which trade 24/7, will provide the first real-time indicator of risk sentiment over the weekend. Historical parallels suggest the initial market reaction will be more severe than the eventual settled outcome, but the timeline for normalisation depends entirely on the military trajectory.
U. S.
At the end of February, the Alberta government released its draft budget for the year, forecasting a deficit resulting from low oil prices, set to extend over the next three years. Now, Canada—and Alberta specifically—are about to become some of the big winners from the oil price rally resulting fr
The once peaceful South American nation of Ecuador is being rocked by cocaine related violence. Since the 2020 pandemic, the tiny country’s murder rate has spiraled higher, hitting an all-time high of nearly 51 murders per 100,000 people during 2025.
Ukraine said it hit a key Russian oil terminal at Primorsk and a refinery in Ufa on Monday.
Shortly before the war with Iran began, I wrote that the seeming complacency among government officials and financial market participants was based on two assumptions which I argued were unlikely to turn out to be true: 1) President Donald Trump would make a last-minute deal with the Iranians and de
The United States is the world’s biggest crude oil producer—it has been for years, and it has been pumping more than 13. 6 million barrels per day of oil for the past few months.
Rerouting and diversification cannot help when a significant chunk of oil and gas have been taken off the market.
Strikes on gas sites in the Iran war are driving up energy costs, pushing up prices for power, food and more worldwide.
Markets are expected to open sharply lower on Monday. S&P 500 futures (trading on Sunday evening) are likely to gap down 3-7% depending on weekend developments. Historical precedent from the 1990 Gulf War shows initial sell-offs of 5-10% followed by recovery within weeks once the military situation stabilised. Expect extreme volatility, circuit breakers may be triggered, and trading halts are possible in the first hour of US trading.
Defence and aerospace stocks (Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems) typically surge 10-25% in the opening days of military conflicts. Oil and gas companies (ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP) benefit from higher crude prices. Gold miners and bullion ETFs gain from safe-haven flows. Cybersecurity firms may also benefit given Iran's known cyber capabilities. Shipping companies with non-Gulf routes could see premium pricing.
This page provides information, not financial advice. Historical data shows that panic selling during geopolitical crises often locks in losses that recover within weeks or months. The S&P 500 has recovered from every geopolitical shock in history, though timelines vary. If you are concerned, consider consulting a qualified financial advisor before making portfolio changes. Dollar-cost averaging and maintaining diversification are generally recommended during volatile periods.
During the 1990 Gulf War, the S&P 500 dropped 16% from the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait to the market bottom, then rallied 25% within four months of Operation Desert Storm beginning. The 2003 Iraq War saw an initial 5% dip followed by a multi-year bull market. After the 2020 US assassination of Soleimani, markets dipped briefly before recovering within days. The Iran conflict is potentially more disruptive due to the direct threat to the Strait of Hormuz oil supply.